Wednesday, October 8, 2008

On the edge : by Ajit Dayal

Equitymaster

How close to the edge are we? Given another terrible day for stocks in the US on Tuesday, October 7th, we must be at the edge. According to the Bloomberg news story, "the S&P 500 slid 60.66 points, or 5.7 percent, to 996.23, extending its 2008 tumble to 32 percent in the market's worst yearly slump since 1937. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 508.39, or 5.1 percent, to 9,447.11, giving it a 29 percent retreat in 2008 that would also be the worst in 71 years. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 5.8 percent to 1,754.88."


We have seen financial panics before.
We have seen wealth evaporate before.
In 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed from 2,641 on October 2nd to 1,739 on October 15th. That was a decline of -52%.In 2 weeks.
In 1998, the Dow Jones crashed from 9,338 on July 17th to 7,539 on August 31st.
That was a decline of -24%. In 6 weeks.
The current decline in the Dow is -49% from its peak of 14,093 established on October, 12, 2007. In 51 weeks.
If things are bad now, they were also pretty bad in 1987 and 1998 yet we survived as a species.

Extract from the article (read the full article)

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